Six months ago, we passed along an article from Guggenheim Investment with its projections on when the next recession might hit. Guggenheim just updated their forecast and we thought we should pass that along as well. In short, because of recent fiscal, monetary, and interest rate changes, they have shifted their projection to late 2019 to mid-2020. It should be noted that other institutional managers see things differently and believe the US will narrowly miss a near-term recession. Even with a recession, it would likely be shallow, because of pro-growth policies, and we don’t see a repeat of 2008. If we had to estimate (totally a guess) there is a 65% chance that Guggenheim’s projections will come true.
It’s a pretty well thought out analysis and I encourage you to review it.
Forecasting the Next Recession: Updating Our Outlook for Recession Timing – Click Here
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